Ardmore, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

744
FXUS64 KOUN 180448
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1048 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1035 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

- Cold front moves across area through tonight.

- Very cold weather from Saturday through Tuesday.

- Chances for snow possible Monday, but totals expected to be
  light.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 833 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

The latest trends in data indicate the chance for snow
flurries/light snow on Saturday, especially across the northern
half to two-thirds of Oklahoma.

Synoptically, a mid-level jet streak/wave and associated ascent
is forecast to approach from the northwest late tomorrow morning
and move east-southeast across the area through the early evening
This ascent appears sufficient for saturation around 8,000 to
15,000 ft. This area is within the dendritic growth zone (DGZ),
which is a layer that is efficient in development of snow.

As a result of these trends, opted to add a chance of snow and
occasional flurries for Saturday across the northern two-thirds of
Oklahoma. A dusting of accumulation is possible.

Mahale

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 221 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Southern stream mid/upper level wave has moved into portions of the
central/southern Plains. This wave is expected to continue to move
across the region the rest of this afternoon and tonight. Meanwhile,
a cold front is just beginning to move into far NW OK. This front
along with a sfc low will move across the area the rest of this
afternoon and tonight as well with colder air expected to move into
the area behind the front.

The colder air behind the front will lead to lows in the 20s and low
30s across the fa tonight. N to NW winds behind the front will also
remain breezy. The colder temperatures and breezy winds will lead to
wind chills in the teens and 20s across the area tonight into
Saturday morning.

The mid/upper lvl wave has also caused some sprinkles/light rain
showers to develop across parts of the area today. This activity is
expected to continue to slowly shift east and move out of the area
late this afternoon or early evening. The overnight period is
currently expected to remain dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 221 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Models show a longwave trough rotating southeast into the region
Saturday and remaining over the area into Sunday. As this system
rotates into the area, much colder arctic air is expected to move
into the fa Saturday, so the coldest air is expected to lag behind
today`s front a bit. This will lead to highs on Saturday ranging
from the upper 20s in NW OK to the 40s in southern OK and north TX.
Saturday`s highs will be 15-30 degrees colder than today but not as
cold as Sunday for much of the area. With the arctic air expected to
be in place by Sunday, highs are expected to only reach the 20s to
maybe low 30s across the area. Lows will also be much colder this
weekend with temperatures in the single digits and teens across the
fa. Any wind combined with these temperatures will also lead to even
colder wind chill values. Wind chills of zero or even below zero
will be possible across parts of the fa with the most likely
locations being in parts of northern OK.

As for precipitation, many locations will remain dry this weekend.
However, as the upper trough rotates into the region there may be
enough lift to produce some snow flurries across parts of the area
during the day on Saturday which should not produce any significant
impacts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 239 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Residual cold air on Monday morning will help lows get down into
the low teens with similar wind chills as Sunday. Veering of the
surface winds will not last too long before another cold front
pushes into the area Monday ahead of the next system. Afternoon
highs will once again only get into the 20s across the entire
area. This cold front, however, will bring snow chances across
western and northwestern Oklahoma Monday. Synoptic forcing appears
to be weak, so overall probabilities of 1 inch of snowfall is
40-60% across western and northwestern Oklahoma.

A brief warm up is expected as surface winds turn back around to
the south. Medium-range models suggest another system later in the
week, which will bring another cold front back through the area.
Overall impacts from this front are still uncertain at this time.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Unrestricted ceilings and visibilities will continue.

A cold front/northerly wind shift has moved through all the
terminals except KDUA, which should occur within the hour. Gusty
northerly winds will continue through the TAF period.

Scattered to broken mid to high level clouds are expected--
especially across northern Oklahoma. There is also a chance of
light snow/flurries across the northern half two thirds of
Oklahoma late Saturday morning through the early evening. The
probability of snow is too low to include in the TAFs at this
time.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  27  34  15  31 /   0  20   0   0
Hobart OK         26  36  15  33 /   0  20   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  31  42  18  34 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           21  27  10  29 /   0  20   0   0
Ponca City OK     23  30  13  28 /   0  20   0   0
Durant OK         33  43  20  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...10